Consumer spending likely to boost growth in 2014
WASHINGTON — Hopes are rising that consumers will drive stronger growth in 2014 after they stepped up spending at the end of last year in the United States and Europe.
The outlook for spending is brightening even though growth is weakening in some large emerging economies and slowing the sales of consumer product giants such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble.
Several trends are boosting consumer spending in developed countries: Inflation is low, enabling shoppers to stretch their dollars, euros and yen. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and other central banks are keeping interest rates super-low. Those low rates have made it easier for borrowers to afford highercost items such as cars and appl i a nce s .
Global retail sales growth jumped to a 5.4 percent annual pace in the three months through November, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase. And global auto sales reached an all-time high in December, the bank said.
“It was a year of big improvement in consumer spending after two years of very weak growth,” said David Hensley, a global economist at JPMorgan Chase. “Businesses were pleasantly surprised by the increase in consumption.” Even in Europe, where growth remains slow after the region emerged from its longest-ever recession last year, consumers appear willing to spend more. Retail sales spiked 1.4 percent in November, the biggest increase in 12 years.
In the United States, Morgan Stanley economists forecast that consumer spending rose in the final three months of the year at its fastest pace in three years.
Consumer spending in Japan could jump by as much as 7 percent in the first quarter of 2014, JPMorgan calculates. Much of that gain might reflect greater spending ahead of an April increase in a national sales tax, from 5 percent to 8 percent. Sales will likely fall back after that, making it harder to determine broader trends.
With more consumers willing to open their wallets, businesses will also likely start spending more on machinery, computers and other equipment, Hensley said, providing an additional spark to growth.
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