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ELECTIONS
Analysts: W.Va. a lock for McCain
CHARLESTON -- Though the political sands can shift before November, the leading national analysts who dabble in Electoral College math appear uniformly certain that presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain can count on West Virginia's five electoral votes.
The scant attention paid it by McCain and Democrat Barack Obama has helped bring home the realization that the Mountain State is not the battleground it was during the last two races for the White House.
By this time in 2004, for instance, President George Bush and Democrat John Kerry had each headlined three full-fledged events in the state since that year's primary.
West Virginia's time in the national spotlight this cycle came and went months ago. The state Republican Party's February convention succeeded in attracting three of the remaining GOP hopefuls -- though not McCain. Obama and fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton paid the state a flurry of visits in the weeks preceding the New York senators decisive May 13 primary win.
Obama has not been in the state since. But while Wednesday marked McCain's third trip this year, it and the previous one were brief preludes to more extensive campaign stops in the emerging battleground of neighboring Ohio. The other was closed to the public and most press, as was the latest.
Here's how analysts view the Mountain State within the electoral map:
- The Cook Political Report: Charlie Cook and his team includes West Virginia among 15 states deemed "solid red." Six of those states are in the South, and includes neighboring Kentucky. Cook estimates that McCain could get 174 electoral votes from states rated solid, likely or leaning Republican. Obama's tally is 240 votes from states similarly trending Democratic. Cook considers nine states, offering 124 votes and including Ohio and Virginia, as toss-ups. The magic number is 270 votes to reach a majority of the Electoral College.
- The Rothenberg Political Report: Editor and Publisher Stuart Rothenberg opined in June that "Three states that were once competitive Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee no longer seem so."
- Sabato's Crystal Ball: Larry Sabato, the often cited University of Virginia political science professor, rates 17 states as solid red including West Virginia. Sabato considers solid red or blue states as allowing "no real chance for upset" by the other candidate. And while he notes that the Obama campaign has expressed hopes of wresting five of those deep red states from McCain, West Virginia isn't among them.
- Congressional Quarterly: CQ commented earlier this month that while West Virginia "is a Democratic stronghold at almost all other levels" and appeared reliable for that party's White House hopefuls up until 2000, the Republican is favored this year.
- Pollster.com: this clearinghouse for all manner of voter surveys conducted across the country averages those focused on West Virginia to give McCain a solid edge in the state. The electoral map fueled by this approach has Obama prevailing nationally, however, with 284 votes to McCain's 157. Toss-up states, including neighboring Virginia, account for the remaining 97 electoral votes.
Sabato's electoral math projects a 240-212 breakdown in McCain's favor, with the remaining 86 votes up for grabs. Three of West Virginia's neighbors -- Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia -- are in his toss-up column.
