Despite early voting in Ohio, crowds still likely on Nov. 4

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohioans waiting to visit the polls on Election Day should expect large crowds close in size to the 2004 presidential election, despite an unprecedented surge in early voting.

An increase in the number of registered voters and a projected turnout of 80 percent means polling places are still likely to see close to the number of voters they saw on Election Day in 2004. If turnout projections come true in Ohio's three largest counties -- Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton -- there may be fewer than 10 percent less voters casting ballots for president on Nov. 4 than there were in 2004. Overall turnout in the 2004 general election was about 72 percent.

Election officials have aggressively pushed early, absentee voting by mail or in person as a way to relieve long lines on Election Day, which plagued Ohio four years ago when the state's electoral votes enabled President Bush to return to the White House for a second term. This is the first presidential election in which any Ohioan can vote absentee without providing a reason.

"Our guys never thought that this was completely going to eliminate lines on Election Day, but certainly it mitigates it," said Aaron Ockerman, a lobbyist for the Ohio Association of Election Officials.

About 1.5 million Ohioans have either voted early in person or requested absentee ballots through the mail, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said Monday. That's about 23 percent of the 6.5 million voters who are expected to turn out for the 2008 presidential election. There are roughly 200,000 more registered voters in the state than in 2004.

The projections for Election Day voters all depend on actual turnout, which could be affected by the weather or other factors. The crowds won't necessarily translate into lines reminiscent of 2004 because there are more voting machines and officials say they are allocated in precincts more efficiently. Franklin County, for example, has roughly 4,600 machines, twice the number it had in 2004. And all county boards of elections are required to have a certain number of paper ballots for voters who want them, or in case touch-screen machines malfunction.

"The secretary has done everything in her power to prepare for a successful general election. Together with the boards, we are working hard to make sure we have a smooth, successful, accurate and fair election," said Brunner spokesman Kevin Kidder.

The 80 percent projection is an average, which means some counties could see a higher turnout while others see a lower turnout.

There's also the wild card of the length and complexity of the ballot. This year's ballot is long, and has several complicated issues to wade through, including a particularly complex issue related to payday lending law.

Finally, the projections for the remaining week of early voting rely on the average number of people voting each day. Counties are likely to see an increase toward the end of early voting on Nov. 3 as procrastinating voters realize they are running out of time.

But if turnout projections hold, there will still be a crush of people at the polls.

In Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, roughly 100,000 -- or 20 percent -- are projected to vote early this year, either by mail or in person. That means roughly 380,000 voters are still expected to come to the polls on Election Day, if the county reaches the 80 percent turnout projection.

In Hamilton in 2004, 433,000 total ballots were cast -- but 45,000 of those were absentee ballots. The number of voters projected to visit the polls on Election Day 2008 is about 2 percent less than the number of voters who showed up in 2004.

In Cuyahoga County -- the state's largest and home to Cleveland -- about 250,000 voters are projected to vote early out of a projected turnout of 880,000 voters. That means about 630,000 voters are expected to show up on Election Day.

In 2004, about 690,000 votes were cast in Cuyahoga County, but about 85,000 of those were absentee. That means more voters could show up at the polls on Nov. 4 than showed up four years ago.

Franklin County, home to Columbus, is having the best luck pressing early voting so far, with about 35 percent of expected voters projected to vote early.

Even so, about 440,000 people are expected to vote on Election Day if turnout projections hold, which is about 90 percent of the number who voted on Election Day in 2004.