CHARLESTON -- The economic forecast has grown more gloomy for West Virginia's Manchin administration, but is perhaps not as dark as what confronts a number of other states.

October's general tax revenues beat their estimate, but not by enough to erase a shortfall for the budget year that exceeds $16 million. Administration officials now estimate that revenues will miss their $3.78 billion target by around $100 million by the time the fiscal year ends June 30.

The crucial source for West Virginia's highway needs faces lagging revenues as well. The State Road Fund is $3.3 million below projections for the year. With a year-end goal of $631.6 million, officials expect that situation will persist.

"As we go along, the work that we do will be adjusted to match what's available," said Susan Watkins, a Department of Transportation spokeswoman. "We're not panicking yet."

The recession is the culprit in both cases. Sales and personal income taxes are crucial general revenue sources, but weak economic activity has taken its toll on both. The same goes for the tax on vehicle sales, which provides a fourth of the State Road Fund's revenues. Revenues from fuel taxes, by contrast, are $3.3 million above estimates for the year.

Gov. Joe Manchin is banking on reduced spending and a special reserve of $168 million to keep the general revenue budget balanced. But a growing number of other states face much tougher options in the face of recession-battered finances.

Before West Virginia's news, half the states had reported deficit threats in the opening months of their budget years, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. While four of those states have yet to estimate their shortfalls, the rest predict gaps that totaled $12.9 billion as of Oct. 30.

The dismal roster includes three of West Virginia's neighbors. While Kentucky faced a projected $82 million shortfall, Maryland and Virginia's each topped $1 billion. All three cut spending, while Maryland and Virginia also furloughed workers and eliminated hundreds of state jobs.

The National Association of State Budget Officers has also been tracking the worsening fiscal landscapes. Its Twitter account has relayed a steady stream of bad news from dozens of states since the month began.

Nebraska has begun a special session to keep its budget balanced. Arizona plans to follow suit later this month, and Connecticut expects to before year's end.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson called tax hikes there "inevitable" last week, while Kansas considers them a possibility as well. One day after voters rejected his re-election bid, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine outlined $400 million in needed cuts. Other states reporting faltering revenues so far this month include Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

All this pain follows the ordeal that numerous states endured to craft their current budgets. NCSL counts eight states, including West Virginia, that required extended or special legislative sessions to complete those spending plans. Nine states, neighboring Ohio and Pennsylvania among them, did not finish the task until after their fiscal years had started.

The budget officers group and the National Governors Association plan to outline the findings of their latest survey of state finances Thursday at a Washington, D.C., event. West Virginia University, meanwhile, is holding its annual Bureau of Business and Economic Research forecast for the Mountain State on Wednesday.

Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow said ongoing efforts to cut spending and control program growth have helped West Virginia avoid the deeper holes now vexing other states. The federal stimulus has also helped, though Muchow noted that the Mountain State relied on it less this fiscal year than a number of its peers.

But Muchow also cited the administration's conservative revenue forecast, which assumes that West Virginia will not see the level of economic activity that it did just one year ago. State Road Fund revenues are currently $16.6 million below where they were at this point in 2008. General revenues are down $140 million when compared to last year.

West Virginia had the seventh-largest drop of projected tax revenue growth for the current budget year, according to a survey by NCSL. Of its neighbors, Ohio ranked fifth and Pennsylvania was among a half-dozen states without available figures. Those rankings will likely change as revenue collections worsen nationwide.

------

Lawrence Messina covers the statehouse for The Associated Press.

National Video