Economists may disagree over the magnitude and timing of America’s future growth in electric vehicle production, but it’s clear that a shortage of vital metals for batteries is a potential threat of crisis proportions sufficient to justify action now.
There are two ways to address this. One is increased domestic mineral mining; the other is increased imports from neighboring and friendly countries. But the best way, the one that makes the most sense, is a combination of the two.
As the transition to electrified transportation gains momentum, the need for huge numbers of batteries to power electric cars, SUVs, pickups and trucks for the next few decades is a pretty safe bet. But no amount of effort to keep EV assembly lines moving will succeed unless we find the right balance in supplying raw materials for batteries. The International Energy Agency expects global demand for minerals and metals to rise six-fold by 2040, from 7 million tons per year to 42 million, a huge increase that will require opening hundreds of new mines.
For Ohio, West Virginia, and other states that have become hubs for battery production, the most daunting task will be to keep mineral supply chains moving. By far the biggest threat comes from the nature of our import dependence: two-thirds of the mineral and metal imports come from adversaries like China and Russia and other countries ruled by dictators. Despite the multitude of problems that come from such dependence, there is a collective complacency in Washington about the origin of minerals needed for our nation’s economic and environmental well-being that could come back to haunt us.
Witness the impasse in Congress over a bill that would ramp up domestic mining by streamlining the mine permitting process on government land. Part of the agreement reached between the Biden administration and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., during negotiations that were held before Congress approved the climate bill last year is that permitting reform would be dealt with decisively. But that hasn’t happened. The administration has avoided the issue. As a result, permit applications for mines, natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure must go through a labyrinthine regulatory process that on average takes 10 years or more.
Consequently, nothing is being done about the growth in imports of critically important battery metals like lithium, the price of which has jumped nearly 900% over the past 18 months. China has a grip on the global extraction and processing of lithium, which is essential in the production of EV batteries. And China dominates production of other battery metals and minerals, including cobalt, manganese, phosphate and rare earths. Russia is a key supplier of nickel, aluminum and uranium.
To forestall a crisis in the years ahead, we need to get serious now about increasing the domestic supply of minerals and metals.
Permitting reform is one of the keys needed to make that happen.
Robert W. Chase, Ph.D., P.E., is a retired professor and chair of the Department of Petroleum Engineering and Geology at Marietta College in Marietta, Ohio.
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